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Posts Tagged ‘EURJPY’

EURJPY – 5 mins (-14pips)

April 29, 2011 Leave a comment

Was busy fixing up my new 32 inch and took this trade without much consideration. Only posting it now as I FINALLY have a breather from crappy day job again.

Bad trade. Bad day in all.

Bad week. Holidays drive traders nuts. First was the huge rally from the beginning of the week coupled with the dovish Bernanke during FOMC. Then towards end of the week traders were cashing out their profits and hence limiting any kind of trends from properly forming as prices are around all time highs.

Pilot month is almost over. Will be posting the results and some detailed analysis over the long weekend (still gotta work on Monday which is supposed to be a public holiday, *rolls eyes)

Pretty excited about trading so far although I seem to have taken a step back this week with only 3 trades that end up bringing me a roundtrip to negative few pips.

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EURJPY 5 mins (-19 pips)

April 19, 2011 Leave a comment

Reasons that increase probability of trade to me:

1) Daily pivot point is 118.00, i.e. market is bearish now.

2) Price @ EMA 62,

3) Stochastics Xover,

4) USDJPY also @ EMA 62 with round number resistance level 82.50 just above EMA62, double resistance.

Stop loss above 117.50, although to me the round number on the EURJPY is not as significant as the USDJPY’s.

Target profit @ 117.05, to get out before round number is hit.

R:R is about 1:1.8.

Fingers crossed.

Subsequent Update

Craps..

Bah. Stopped out again. Back to back again. Bad start to the week..

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EURJPY 5 mins (+41 pips)

April 15, 2011 Leave a comment

Here goes:

Everything is written on the charts.

Trade dedicated to my trading buddy LSY. Thanks for the notification on this trade. Awesomely rewarded and saved my ass from shitty Thursday.

Can’t wait for our first mini trading symposium later where we will trash out R:R strategies.

Oh that reminds me I have a -5 pip GBPUSD stupid stupid trade that I have yet to post.

But since its so embarassing maybe I’ll just skip the post and move on.

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EURJPY 5 mins (-20 pips)

April 14, 2011 Leave a comment

Trade entered.

Subsequent Update

Trade stopped out.

Sure is a tough day. Back to back losses.

Have to analyse the 2 trades later. Was I too hasty and omitted some info? Hmm.

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“Uninspiring Asian session” – Jamie Coleman

April 13, 2011 Leave a comment

Could this have been the signal?

Perhaps I should not only seek and take perfect signals (price rebounding off EMA62).

Since we cant command price to move in our way, the above can actually be considered a valid signal which is confirmed by the MACD and Stochastics.

Hmm.. Point noted.

Yen crosses.. Pips for thought..

April 12, 2011 Leave a comment

Why are JPY pairs so volatile historically?

FX 101. What are the Foreign exchange majors?

The majors are USD, EUR, JPY, CHF and GBP.

As they are traded against the USD, major pairs are therefore the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.

That brings us to today’s topic, the major crosses: EURJPY, GBPJPY and even the AUDJPY.

From a simple point of view, cross values are derived from the following formula:

EUR/ USD x USD/ JPY = EUR/ JPY

(A)          x         (B)       =   (C)

(A): Multiplier pair

(B): Base pair

From the above equation, the EUR and GBP crosses will typically be 1.45 times and 1.63 times more volatile than USDJPY, i.e. Assuming USDJPY is constant, 1 pip movement results in 1.45 and 1.63 pip movement in EURJPY and GBPJPY.

Of course in an ideal world the JPY will be constant. In the real world, both are variables and due to trade flows, prices fluctuate constantly.

Fundamentally, to effectively trade the EUR and GBP yen crosses, one could place more emphasis on the USDJPY pair instead of the EURUSD or GBPUSD.

According to the veterans, yen crosses are not as profitable statistically and not for the faint hearted. I agree with that to a large extent in the sense that stop losses have to be greater, risk is higher etc.

With this in mind, one might also infer that round number Support/Resistance levels (i.e. 1.00 and 0.50 price levels) for cross pairs are not as effective (as the USDJPY’s) since the price of the yen cross is a derivative of the USDJPY .

Point forward, to better utilise stop loss and profit target areas, one should consider consulting the USDJPY charts to identify potential reversal/support/resistance points in order to set informed and realistic stop loss and target profit levels.

And yes, going by the above train of thought, that is why the EURGBP is less volatile by nature.

EURJPY 5 mins (+12 pips)

April 12, 2011 Leave a comment

Signal

Price in trade zone – Check

MACD decreasing – Check

Stochastics crossover- Check.

Trade entered, full stop.

Subsequent update

Premature exit

1) I clicked too fast and entered 1.5 times what I was supposed to enter.

2) Japan earthquake (6.3 magnitude)

EURJPY was really whipping like a mad bull on steriods. From my Oanda Iphone app, 1 minute I’m up 5 pips, 1 minute down 3 pips.

Anyway as you can see by the 2 blue arrows, first i exited 0.5 to readjust my risk. Then after learning about the quake, I ran for cover @ +10 pips.

Total gain from trade: 12 pips. Celebrate all wins no matter how small the victory.

Next up UK CPI. More trade opportunities to come.

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