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Posts Tagged ‘AUDJPY’

AUDJPY out of control!

April 21, 2011 Leave a comment

Woah woah woah.. That’s why I say, be patient when you miss your chance, there’s ALWAYS another opportunity to make pips! Check this out!

Deja vu man! AUDUSD @ 1.0717 as we speak! US greenback has achieved “Toilet paper” status!

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AUDJPY the sequel – 15 mins (+28 pips)

April 20, 2011 Leave a comment

Here goes AUDJPY again. USDJPY is currently @ weekly support of about 82.35 region. Probably will bolster a the rebounce of the AUDJPY.

Here’s how it looks:

Entry signals for 15 mins chart is simple. Just enter @ the EMA and set trail stop of 25 pips. Target’s previous swing high, 88.40! That’s like a whooping 60 pips away. Making the potential R:R for this trade 1: 2++! Will the market garner enough momentum to retest the high again? We’ll see. In any case, I have my trail stop in place. 🙂

Subsequent Update

Well I manually closed out for 28 pips gain.

Why? I guess I’m gonna give myself excuses again. But couple of reasons come to mind.

1) Its been a pretty tough week, so it certainly helps that I close a good trade that brings me 1 step closer to my weekly target;

2) AUDUSD seems to be topping @ 1.0670 – 1.0680-ish.. USDJPY 5 mins is trading below the SMA200. Seems to me that it might cap the upside gain. ON the other hand if I took the AUDUSD 5 mins signal, I would have made a perfect trade, target @ swing high:

AUDUSD 5 mins trade signal (Not taken but 35 pips potential)

Textbook EMA 62 trade (If taken)

Anyways the trade I took was a win which was slightly above 1:1 (R:R), but actually at that point in time my trail stop had already locked in a couple of pips. So actually R:R is more than 1:1 if you factor in the time variable (Market exposure risk).

Just like a fund manager, I need to manage my P&L first. After all this is my pilot month.

AUDJPY 5 mins (+18pips)

April 20, 2011 Leave a comment

Trends too strong during the day. Couldn’t catch any 15 min trends..

Switched back to 5 min and caught this instead:

‘Nuff said, standard entry indicators given so long position was sought.

Subsequent Update

TP was set @ 87.96, safer to get out before the big OO resistance.

Target hit and 18 pips up on this trade.

Back in the green for this week. But shan’t count my pips before they hatch.

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Yen crosses.. Pips for thought..

April 12, 2011 Leave a comment

Why are JPY pairs so volatile historically?

FX 101. What are the Foreign exchange majors?

The majors are USD, EUR, JPY, CHF and GBP.

As they are traded against the USD, major pairs are therefore the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and GBPUSD.

That brings us to today’s topic, the major crosses: EURJPY, GBPJPY and even the AUDJPY.

From a simple point of view, cross values are derived from the following formula:

EUR/ USD x USD/ JPY = EUR/ JPY

(A)          x         (B)       =   (C)

(A): Multiplier pair

(B): Base pair

From the above equation, the EUR and GBP crosses will typically be 1.45 times and 1.63 times more volatile than USDJPY, i.e. Assuming USDJPY is constant, 1 pip movement results in 1.45 and 1.63 pip movement in EURJPY and GBPJPY.

Of course in an ideal world the JPY will be constant. In the real world, both are variables and due to trade flows, prices fluctuate constantly.

Fundamentally, to effectively trade the EUR and GBP yen crosses, one could place more emphasis on the USDJPY pair instead of the EURUSD or GBPUSD.

According to the veterans, yen crosses are not as profitable statistically and not for the faint hearted. I agree with that to a large extent in the sense that stop losses have to be greater, risk is higher etc.

With this in mind, one might also infer that round number Support/Resistance levels (i.e. 1.00 and 0.50 price levels) for cross pairs are not as effective (as the USDJPY’s) since the price of the yen cross is a derivative of the USDJPY .

Point forward, to better utilise stop loss and profit target areas, one should consider consulting the USDJPY charts to identify potential reversal/support/resistance points in order to set informed and realistic stop loss and target profit levels.

And yes, going by the above train of thought, that is why the EURGBP is less volatile by nature.

AUDJPY 5 mins (+5 pips)

April 8, 2011 Leave a comment

Entry triggered

Stop loss @ 89.48

Profit Target @ 89.95

R:R 1 to 2. Pretty good conditions apart from the premature MACD.

Will we get the late rally to 90? With major economic releases out of the way, its a clear road now. Go AUD bulls!

Subsequent Update

Stopped out

So……. its times like that that make you wanna kill yourself. ALMOST hit TP which was 30 pips. ANYWAYS, I decided to run a trail stop as I went for dinner with another passionate aspiring trader.

Final profit, +5 pips after 4 long hours. Tough trade this one. Makes you feel that the upward momentum seems to be waning.

Came across an idea that the reason that currently USD bears are running amock is due to the rising oil prices. The lower the dollar, the higher the oil price. And the higher the oil price, the faster the oil producers are converting them into EUR/AUD/GBP like a cheap knockout sale.

AUDUSD currently registering all time high of 1.054. There’s no stopping this even though the RBA has already signaled they will no longer be increasing interest rates in the short run. Kind of makes the oil story more believable.

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Oh well, battle won none the less. 1 more ‘successful-cud-have-been-25-pipper’ trade added to my trade history.

Celebrate your wins no matter how small. Mourn your losses and move on.

Cheers to a pretty good first week of my 6 month plan (23 more weeks to go).

Will run back-end analysis over the weekend.

Off to enjoy whats left of my Friday night.

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Talk about round numbers..

April 8, 2011 Leave a comment

Snapshot of how the yen crosses are doing now:

AUDJPY  @ 89.85

EURJPY @ 122.95

GBPJPY @ 139.92

All hitting round numbers pretty soon..

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